台湾军队自身问题严重 更遑论对付中国解放军

　　中国人民解放军做得再好不过了。比近期所有一切都好，围绕着7月4日一位台湾陆军下士的死亡，台湾的国内争论正在摧毁台湾军队的士气及其公信力。台湾将会在2015年之前实行自愿兵役制，但该事件给予其致命打击。

　　年仅24岁的士兵洪仲丘死于播散性血管內凝血（DIC），而他还差三天就将结束为期一年的兵役。这一事件在台湾引起了一场主要的政治风暴，各大广播电视台都充斥这一新闻。并且导致7月20日大批民众在台湾“国防部”总部进行示威。随着公众抗议的高涨，9天后台“国防部”部长高华柱递交了其辞呈。

　　在酷热中经历数天艰苦训练后洪仲丘死在了医院，在其被关禁闭的数天内没有喝一点水。而惩罚的原因仅在他携带有“拍照功能”的手机入营。随着该事件更多的细节暴露，很可能是洪仲丘因揭露腐败行为遭到其上级的处罚——以不符合军队章程的方式。

　　紧随公众的强烈抗议，视频证据消失了，同时曝出历年来还有好几个家庭的儿子死于这种神秘的情形。军事检察官启动了一次全面调查，此次调查与7月31日结束，通告18名高级官员被起诉。

　　洪仲丘的家人和台湾民众对此通告表示愤怒，称应该起诉洪仲丘被关禁闭的拘留中心的相关人员，而不是批准对其进行惩罚的高级官员。此外，调查期间新的证据进一步指向掩盖和贿赂，促使其家属在8月1日表示他们对军事检察官的能力已经能够彻底绝望了，或者他们根本就不愿做他们该做的，这种情绪似乎与大部分民众的一样。另一次大规模的示威8月3日将会在总统府前举行。

　　此次丑闻的影响可能很深远。随着越来越多的人讲出他们自己的恐怖经历，台湾的年轻人变得不愿意服兵役，现行兵役制度将会在2015年初被废止。但仍然有很少一部分人自愿在军队服役。

　　甚至在洪仲丘死亡事件之前，军方已经无法达到它为自己设定的一个基准，即现役士兵总数21.5万人，其中17.6万是自愿的。2011年目标是4000志愿兵但是仅吸收了一半，2012年仅1.1万人，比其目标少4000人。2013年前半年的数据更加凄惨，截至7月3日仅有1847人。政府部门今年的征兵目标是17447人。

　　甚至在该丑闻之前，关于到征兵的时候如果不能吸引足够的志愿者，政府部门都没有制定出一个明确的计划。洪仲丘的死旺将毫无疑问地加剧这一问题，以至于我们不得不怀疑到2015年台湾是否还有力量对抗人民解放军的威胁继续保卫台湾。

　　除非征兵趋势突然改变，否则很难想象军方如何在没有重新引入义务兵役的情况下满足所要求的兵力水平。一种可能是重新引入征兵制度会变成2016年的总统大选中的一个主要问题。由于马英九已经兑现了其竞选时的承诺终止义务兵役制，国民党内他的继承者（马英九不能进行第三任期）不太可能会推翻它。这留给其对手民进党一个不受欢迎的政策，他们需要说服民众支持恢复义务兵役但是这个政策必定会疏离许多选民。

　　杨念祖已经取代高华柱成为新任“国防部长”8月1日发誓称类似于洪仲丘死亡的事件将不会再发生。尽管他有着良好的声誉和美好的愿望，但是杨念祖仍面临着艰巨的工作，因为他需要努力消除该丑闻的影响，重建军队的声誉。

　　原文：

　　Forget the PLA， Taiwan’s Military Threatens Itself

　　The People’s Liberation Army （PLA） couldn’t have done it better itself. More than anything in recent times， the controversy surrounding the July 4 death of a Taiwanese Army corporal is devastating morale and public confidence in the Taiwanese military， and risks striking a fatal blow to Taiwan’s efforts to create an all-volunteer force by 2015.

　　The death of 24-year-old Hung Chung-chiu from hyperthermia-induced disseminated intra-vascular coagulation， or DIC， three days before he was due to complete his obligatory service has sparked a major political storm in Taiwan， completely dominating the airwaves and leading to a large protest in front of the Ministry of National Defense headquarters on July 20 （see above）。 Nine days later， with public protests continuing， Minister of National Defense Kao Hua-chu tendered his resignation.

　　Hung died in hospital after being subjected to days of arduous exercises in extreme heat and without being given any water while in detention for the ostensible crime of bringing a cell phone equipped with a camera on the base. As more details about the case emerged， it became likely that the conscript was punished by his superiors — in a manner that broke military regulations — for uncovering corruption within his unit.

　　Following the public outcry， video evidence disappearing， and several families coming forth whose sons also died under mysterious circumstances over the years， military prosecutors launched a full-fledged investigation into the death， which wrapped up on July 31 with the announcement that 18 senior officers and NCOs had been indicted.

　　Hung’s family and the Taiwanese public have reacted with anger to the announcement， saying that the indictments targeted personnel who had served at the detention center where Hung was held， rather than the more senior officers who authorized his punishment. Additionally， new evidence is pointing to further cover-ups and bribery during the probe， prompting the family to say on August 1 that they had lost all hope in the military prosecutors’ ability or willingness to do their jobs， a sentiment that seems to be shared by a large segment of the public. Another large rally will be held on Aug. 3 in front of the Presidential Office.

　　The repercussions of this scandal could be far reaching. As more people come forward with horror stories of their own， young Taiwanese men have become even more reluctant to do their obligatory service， which under current plans is to be phased out by early 2015. Fewer still consider volunteering for a career in the armed forces.

　　Even before Hung’s death， the military was failing to meet the benchmarks it had set for itself， including a total active duty force of 215，000， of which 176，000 are to be volunteers. It attracted half of the 4，000 volunteers it was aiming for in 2011， and only 11，000 in 2012， missing its target by 4，000. The figures for the first half of 2013 are even more dismal， with 1，847 signing up through July 3. The ministry’s recruitment goal for the year is 17，447.

　　Even before the scandal， the ministry didn’t seem to have a clear plan as to what it will do if it cannot attract enough volunteers by the time conscription is lifted. Hung’s death will undoubtedly exacerbate the problem， so much so that one is left wondering whether the active force will be large enough in 2015 to continue defending the nation against the PLA threat.

　　Barring a sudden change in recruitment trends， it is hard to imagine how the military will be able to sustain required force levels without reintroducing conscription， which will be very difficult politically. One possibility is that reintroducing conscription could become a major issue in the 2016 presidential election. As President Ma Ying-jeou had made ending obligatory service one of his campaign promises， it is unlikely that his successor （Ma cannot run for a third term） within his Kuomintang （KMT） will seek to overturn that. This leaves the opposition Democratic Progressive Party （DPP）， which will be compelled to argue in favor of its resumption， an unpopular policy that is certain to alienate many voters.

　　Andrew Yang， who has replaced Kao as defense minister， vowed on Aug. 1 that cases such as Hung’s death would never again take place. Despite his solid reputation and best intentions， Yang faces a Herculean task as he tries to undo the damage caused by the scandal and rebuilds the military’s reputation.