终于找到了真相：这才是中国挺叙的真正原因

　　Why China Will Oppose Any Strike on Syria

　　为什么中国会反对在叙利亚的任何攻击

　　The United States once again seems poised to launch a military strike against a Middle Eastern country， and， once again， China is against it： In a stinging editorial， the China Daily warned that military action against Syria could be “another Iraq” and that it is high time the U.S. “learned from its past mistakes.”

　　美国又一次打算对一个中东国家进行军事打击，同样，中国又一次表示了反对。在一篇尖刻的社论中，中国日报警告说，针对叙利亚的军事行动将会是“另一场伊拉克战争”，而现在的美国正应该从以往的错误中吸取教训。

　　The main rationale for a U.S. strike against Syria is that， by using chemical weapons against Syrians living in an opposition-controlled village， President Bashar al-Assad has violated an international norm and must be punished. In theory， a strike would not only prevent Assad from using these weapons again but also deter embattled governments elsewhere from deploying them. As of this writing， President Obama said he still hasn‘t made up his mind about going forward with the attack， but no one will be surprised if he gives the order.

　　美国打击叙利亚的主要依据就是，叙政府使用化学武器袭击了反对派控制的村庄并造成叙利亚平民的伤亡，叙总统巴沙尔·阿萨德违反了国际规定，而他必须受到惩罚。按理说，一场军事打击不仅能制止阿萨德再次使用化学武器还能阻止政府军的其他地方展开军事行动。截止到发稿时，

　　奥巴驴总统尚未决定直接进行军事行动，但如果他下达攻击命令的话，这也毫不奇怪。

　　hina， like 188 other countries， is a signatory to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons， and， unlike Russia， has no military relationship with Syria. Yet throughout the more than two-year-old crisis， China has consistently used its veto power to squelch punishment on Damascus， and has continued to offer financial support to the Assad regime. And should Obama go ahead and seek UN authorization for military action against Assad， China has hinted that it will veto that， too.

　　像188个其他国家一样，中国也是“禁止化学武器”组织的签约国。但不同于俄罗斯的是，中国并没有与叙利亚建立军事关系。然而，在两年多的叙利亚危机期间，中国始终使用自己的否决权阻止针对大马士革方面的惩罚行动。而且，他一直都在为阿萨德政府提供资金支持。假如奥巴驴寻求联合国授权

　　打击叙利亚的话，中国已经暗示他仍将否决掉。

　　What behind China‘s position on Syria？ One possible explanation is the country’s growing energy needs—China is expected to become the world‘s largest oil consumer within four years and imports nearly 55 percent of this oil from the Middle East. But Syria isn’t a major exporter， and China can easily rely on other countries for its oil.

　　中国挺叙的背后到底有什么原因呢？一个可能的解释就是中国日益增长的能源需求。据预测中国将在四年内成为全球最大的能源进口国，而其55石油进口将来自中东。但是叙利亚并不是主要的石油出口国，同样中国也能很容易地找到其他伙伴。

　　Instead， these are the actual reasons for China‘s opposition to an invasion of Syria：

　　其实，以下才是中国挺叙的真正原因。

　　China and Russia feel burned by what happened in Libya

　　利比亚战争让中俄脸上无光

　　On March 17， 2011， the UN Security Council voted 10 to 0 to establish a no-fly zone over Libya in order to protect Benghazi civilians from mass slaughter. Expected to veto the resolution， China and Russia instead abstained， and two days later a Western-led intervention began. When the skirmish eventually brought about the end of Muammar Gaddafi’s presidency， beyond the original mission of the resolution， China made its displeasure known.

　　2011年3月17日，为了保护班加西的村庄免受屠戮，联合国安理会以10比0的票数通过了在叙利亚设立禁飞区的决议。不同于之前的预料，中俄并没有行使否决权。而两天之后，却发起了一场由西方主导的军事干预行动。当一场小规模的军事行动最终结束了卡扎菲的统治之后，针对这场原定决议外的行动，中国表达了他的不满。

　　The Chinese felt that the UN Resolution was essentially used to overthrow Gaddafi， and that it was far more expansive than what they envisioned，“ said Bonnie Glaser， an East Asia Senior Advisor at Center for Strategic and International Studies.

　　“中国人觉得联合国决议被用来推翻了卡扎菲，而这个结果远非他们预想的那样。” 战略与国际研究中心，东亚高级顾问Bonnie Glaser说道。

　　Ever since， it‘s safe to say that China no longer trusts American intentions in cases of foreign intervention.

　　此后，可以说中国不再相信美国对他国的干预意图。

　　China wants a seat at the table

　　中国想在谈判桌上占据一席之地

　　Although China’s diplomatic profile in the Middle East has grown over the years—the country has a dedicated Middle East envoy and has even floated its peown four-point proposal for Israel/Palestine ace—its reach in the region remains limited. However， China has consistently objected to American interventionism overseas.

　　尽管这几年中国在中东的外交形象不断提升——中国已经设立了中东特使并针对巴以问题提出四点建议，但他的影响力仍然有限。但不管怎样，中国对美国的海外干涉主义一贯持反对意见。

　　”China wants international crises to be resolved in bodies that they have a voice in，“ saysJoel Wuthnow ， an Asia analyst in the China Security Affairs Group at CNA. ”They prefer forums where they have a veto.“

　　“中国希望参与解决国际性危机事务” 华新社中国安全事务组，亚洲分析师Joel Wuthnow说道，”他们更喜欢那种他们拥有否决权的论坛“

　　China‘s reticence when it comes to entanglement in the Middle East isn’t a universal principle： The country aggressively pursues territorial claims in the South China Sea， an area which China regards as a core national interest. But in respect to crises beyond its periphery， Beijing‘s strategy is to prevent another Iraq War. Washington’s decision， in collusion with London and a few other members of the ”coalition of the willing，“ to attack Iraq in 2003 without the support of the UN Security Council drew sharp condemnation from Beijing.

　　在面对中东的问题时的沉默并不是中国一贯的原则。中国在南海以一种咄咄逼人的姿态声索领土主权，因为这个地区被中国看作是国家的核心利益。但是面对势力范围外的危机时，北京的战略是避免另一场伊拉克战争。

　　2003年，美国联合英国及其他“意志联盟”的国家在没有联合国安理会授权的情况下做出了攻打伊拉克的决定，这引起了中国的强烈谴责。

　　China is obsessed with stability—and fears a post-Assad future

　　中国一直致力于稳定，他很在意后阿萨德时代局势会如何演变。

　　There‘s really no evidence that China has any special affection for Bashar al-Assad or views him as essential to Syria’s future， but Assad is a known element， and China believes that his departure will be chaotic. Syria lacks a unified opposition， a shadow government， or any other institution that could step in should Assad‘s regime collapse， so a military endeavor that decapitates the government might just make everything a whole lot worse. Plus， Beijing fears that an Islamist movement in Syria may radicalize China’s Uighur population， a Sunni Muslim group which occasionally clashes with the Communist Party government.

　　并没有证据证明中国钟情于阿萨德或者把他视为叙利亚未来所必需的领导者，但是阿萨德的确是一个众所周知的因素，中国相信他的离开将导致叙利亚的混乱。叙利亚没有一个统一的反对党，阿萨德政权倒台后，傀儡政权、或者其他任何组织将涉足叙利亚政治事务。

　　因此，一场针对叙政府的军事斩首行动将会让局势变得一团糟。另外，北京方面还害怕叙利亚境内的伊斯兰运动将会刺激国内的维吾尔人，一个逊尼派穆斯林组织（天杀的东突）时常会与GCD政府作对。

　　What will China do if the U.S. strikes Syria—and how much would an attack damage Sino-American relations？ Wuthnow says this depends on how Washington goes about it. If President Obama orders a ground invasion of Syria， China would have serious objections—but a brief round of airstrikes would cause a more muted reaction： ”We‘d see some rhetorical flourishes from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or in the People’s Daily condemning it， but China wouldn‘t let an airstrike damage their relations with the U.S.，“ says Wuthnow. Not least because， given its still-modest military strength， China lacks the capacity to intervene even if it wanted to.

　　如果美国执意攻打叙利亚中国会如何应对？这场攻击行动优惠对中美关系造成怎样的影响？Wuthnow 说，这取决于华盛顿方面如何处理。

　　如果奥巴驴命令地面部队开进叙利亚，中国将严正抗议。

　　但如果是一轮短暂的空中打击的话，中国将会给予比较缓和的回应：“我们将看到外交部委婉的批评或者人民日报关于此事的论，但不管怎样，中国不会让一场空袭破坏中美关系。”Wuthnow 说道。尤其是，在考虑到它仍然有限的军事实力，尽管中国希望为叙利亚出头，但他依旧缺乏足够的能力。

　　Regardless of what happens， it’s safe to say that China， by opposing any military strike， is on the side of the American public. Within the United States， support for invading Syria is infinitesimal， with many hawkish Republicans （even Donald Rumsfeld！） expressing misgivings. And over the years， Chinese warnings about the risks of American intervention have proven remarkably prescient： neither Iraq nor Libya have exactly turned into oases of stability since the overthrow of their strongmen. Whatever China‘s motivations for opposing an invasion of Syria， its non-interventionist instinct seems to have proven merit.

　　不管怎样，可以这么说，通过反对军事打击，中国占在了美国民众这一边。

　　在美国国内，极少有人支持出兵叙利亚，就连很多共和党的鹰派人物甚至包括唐纳德·亨利·拉姆斯菲尔德！（译注，美国前防长）都表示了担忧。

　　而且，这么多年以来，中国对美国干涉他国内政的风险的警告已经明显被证明具有先见之明。

　　不管是伊拉克还是利比亚，在他们国内的独裁者被推翻后，那里并没有变成安定祥和的乐土。不管中国反对入侵叙利亚是基于什么动机，他不干涉他国内政的主张已经被证明是有益的